I was standing in the supermarket aisle last week, basket in hand, when it hit me how long it has been since the weekly shop didn't feel like a mild mugging. The latest numbers from the Office for National Statistics confirm what my wallet has been whispering: food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by just 1.7 percent in the 12 months to June. That's down from 2.2 percent the month before and the gentlest increase we've seen since August 2024.
Between May and June alone the category actually fell 0.2 percent. You read that right. Prices went backwards. Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery delivered the biggest downward shove, followed by oils and fats. Margarine in particular dropped 1.9 percent over the year. Pizza and quiches slid 6.7 percent. Even beef and veal eased off from a bruising 9.4 percent inflation rate to a more manageable 5.1 percent. Meat, dairy and vegetables joined the gentle retreat.
Food prices fell this month, driven by products including chocolate, margarine and beef.
Those are the words of Grant Fitzner, the ONS chief economist, and they land with quiet satisfaction. For families trying to keep the weekly food bill from devouring the rest of the budget, this is tangible relief. A few pence saved on margarine or a pack of chocolate biscuits might not sound like much in the grand scheme, but when you're feeding hungry mouths every single day those pence add up. They keep the roast on the table and the children's lunchboxes respectable without forcing impossible choices between heating and eating.
The broader picture shows consumer prices overall rising 2.6 percent in the year to June, down from 2.8 percent, with a 0.1 percent tick upward from May to June. Food, which makes up roughly one eighth of the typical household basket, has been one of the brighter spots. This easing didn't come from ministers slapping caps on shelves or bureaucrats dictating what farmers can charge. It came through the messy, responsive machinery of supply chains adjusting, retailers competing, and producers finding ways to deliver without the heavy hand of price controls that so often distort incentives and end up costing us more in the long run.
That's worth remembering. Markets, for all their imperfections, have a habit of finding equilibrium when left to get on with it. Global headwinds haven't vanished. Energy costs may yet push things the other way later this year. Yet right now British shoppers are seeing the private sector demonstrate a resilience that lectures about intervention rarely deliver. Stable family budgets matter. They let parents plan, children eat properly, and households avoid the quiet stress that comes when every trip to the shops feels like a battle.
I won't pretend this is a feast after famine. Inflation at 1.7 percent is still inflation. But after the punishing spikes of recent years it feels like the first proper breath of cooler air in a long, sweaty kitchen. The plate in front of us looks a little less daunting. For that, at least, we can be grateful.
